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KMID : 1124020100260020375
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Korean Social Security Studies
2010 Volume.26 No. 2 p.375 ~ p.400
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Projection of Long-term Care Insurance: Beneficiary and, Personnel and Facility
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Choi In-Duck
Lee Sang-Lim
Lee Jung-Myun
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Abstract
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The population of long-term care insurance beneficiary has been increased much faster than the expected number, and the rising pattern is predicted to continue for a few years. Precise projection for beneficiaries, and facilities and personnel for long-term care insurance is an essential element for policy decision. The main purposes of this study are to project changes of the beneficiary population, and facilities and personnel, and to provide practical suggestions for early settlement and sustainable development of long-term care insurance. For the purpose, applied HP population projection methods are employed for the beneficiary population projection. And then, based on the projection results and previous experiences in Japan, we estimate changes in facilities and personnel of long-term care insurance in the next five years. The number of beneficiaries in 2010 is expected to reach to about 320,000. But, increase rates of beneficiaries will be declining as time goes on. For the facilities, the increase rate of care facilities is estimated to be in downward trend though the increase rate of in-home services facilities is estimated to keep the upward pattern. For institutional services facilities, the current lack of personnel is anticipated being moderated even though the shortage of personnel in institutional services is estimated to be intensified.
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KEYWORD
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long-term care insurance, population projection, care facility, in-home services facility, care helper
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